Indian Bond Yields Steady Despite US Treasury Challenges
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What’s going on here?
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Indian government bond yields held steady on December 30, 2024, with the 10-year yield at 6.7873%, as US Treasury yields remained high and trading volumes dipped.
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What does this mean?
With US Treasury yields climbing to 4.60%, caution is creeping into global markets, but India’s bond market remains largely unmoved. Trading volumes have cooled off, hitting 381 billion rupees daily, showing that investors are treading carefully as the new fiscal quarter nears. The Indian rupee’s tumble to record lows complicates things further, possibly triggering foreign outflows. In recent weeks, foreign investors have sold 27 billion rupees of bonds linked to JPMorgan’s emerging market debt index, reversing previous buying trends. The picture is blurred by tighter liquidity in the banking system, as investors brace for potential portfolio losses at the end of the third quarter.
Why should I care?
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For markets: Global jitters, local calm.
India’s bond market has maintained stability amid global concerns about rising US Treasury yields, thanks in part to steady government bond yields. But with foreign investors shedding Indian bonds due to rupee volatility, future market stability is in question. Investors should keep an eye on these pressures as 2025 begins, especially with the Federal Reserve’s updated rate forecasts affecting global confidence.
The bigger picture: Rupee’s ripple effect.
The weakening rupee and rising US yields signal broader economic caution, particularly as the Federal Reserve scales back its rate cut expectations. This underscores the vital link between currency stability and investment flows in emerging markets like India. As these global shifts progress, they may redefine long-term strategies for businesses and policymakers around the world.
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